Black Friday U.S. stock market outlook

 Even if I tried to forget the worries of the U.S. stock market, which plunged on Friday, I couldn't help but think of it from time to time.

I went hiking with my dog Joy, went to the market, planted more melons, pulled grass, went to Seoul, went shopping, and built a house for Joy.

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It's a vegetable in spring.

Starting with Naengyi, I'm eating native dandelion, chwinamul, and soothing at home, and mugwort...These days, I eat mulberry shoots as vegetables and it tastes good. It's easier to collect than I thought and it's a lot, so I think I can eat it for a long time. Hah!

When I go to the mountain behind me, there are a lot of people who collect this and that, but I don't know what I can eat because I don't know. Everyone is collecting without saying anything.As expected, knowing is power. Hahaha

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Dow -2.77 Nasdaq -4.17%

Amazon Earning Shock - 14% plunge and 2.925% rise in government bond rates. Black Friday

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Due to the plunge in the U.S. stock market on Friday, it is inevitable that the U.S. It is judged that unfavorable factors such as the US corporate performance was completed, the risk of blocking Chinese cities, and the US austerity were reflected. The market believes that stability can be found, and if it falls, the proportion of performance-enhancing stocks will increase

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Foreigners and institutions, which had been selling Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for a month, simultaneously bought it. undervaluation of performance a price range of interest LG Chem and Samsung SDI are also positive in large-cap stocks

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Along with Samsung Electronics' rise, semiconductor equipment stocks are also increasingly interested. ETF I'm interested in TIGER, the NASDAQ in Philadelphia

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Semiconductors, which came with improved supply and demand last Friday, and pharmaceuticals, which emerged through the cracks in the sluggish market, should be of interest

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Hanmi Pharmaceutical TOP. Celltrion SK Bioscience is strong recently. Other Three Thousand Sugar Pharmaceuticals. Korea-U.S. Science HLB Positive. Daewoong Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd

Successfully broke through the water wall.Recently, Nabota's growth potential has been highlighted

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Beneficiaries of expansion of renewable energy such as Hanshin Machinery's nuclear power plant

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The possibility of a upward shift in the flow of shipping shares

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Songwon Industrial Performance Surprise. Attention during adjustment

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Hyundai Glovis Automotive Top Shareholder Value Increase Positive

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Kumho Petroleum Hyosung T&C Hyosung Advanced Materials. Stocks undervalued compared to performance. SK Chemicals is also comfortable

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Kolon In the Hydrogen Theme: A company with good performance during the week. Chart positive, affordable price range

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A surge in timber prices at Sungchang Enterprises. Inflation beneficiary stocks highlight asset value

New York Stock Exchange's weak technology stocks. Twitter Falls 8%

 The yield on government bonds fell to around 2.88%, but major technology stocks fell sharply. The market expects the Fed's rate hike to lead to an economic slowdown. The Fed says the U.S. economy is strong. However, the Fed was often wrong. Even Bernanke accused Powell of missing the right time to raise interest rates. Powell is speeding too much this time, adding to concerns about the game.  

The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is falling due to the spread of daily charts/ concerns over an economic recession.

"The economic downturn is inevitable." Investor sentiment, "DOWN"... Twitter Falls 8%

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Money Today 2022-05-17 06:49 

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The New York stock market closed lower amid concerns over an economic recession. The Dow closed flat.

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The Dow closed at 32,223.42 on the New York Stock Exchange on the 16th (local time), up 26.76 points (0.08 percent) from the previous day. The S&P 500 index closed at 4008.01, down 15.88 points (0.39%). The NASDAQ index closed at 11,662.79, down 142.21 points (1.20 percent).

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Interest rates on government bonds fell. The 10-year government bond rate, which started at 2.918% on the same day, fell to 2.882%.

Investor sentiment waning amid concerns over slowing growth...weak technology stocks

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Investor sentiment shrank and technology stocks fell together amid concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and soaring inflation.

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With Tesla down 5.88%, Apple and Alphabet fell 1.07% and 1.39%, respectively. Amazon and Netflix also fell 1.99% and 0.61%, respectively. ARK Innovation ETF also fell 5.92%.Among major technology stocks, Microsoft and Meta closed higher, rising 0.14% and 0.71%, respectively.

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Rivian and Lucid fell 6.90 percent and 3.61 percent, respectively, while Peloton and Zoom video also fell 2.46 percent and 6.25 percent, respectively. Teladak closed 5.54 percent lower. Coupang fell 5.33 percent.

Twitter Falling 8%; Coinbase Falling 9%

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Twitter fell 8.18 percent to the $30 range.Semiconductor shares were also weak. With NVIDIA down 2.50%, Intel and AMD fell 1.20% and 0.93%, respectively. Micron and Qualcomm also fell 2.02% and 0.76%, respectively. ASML also fell by 2.44%.

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Wall Street: "It's hard to argue that there's no recession."

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"We are continuing to switch to interest-led price adjustments," said Bill Nosi, senior director of U.S. Bank Wells Management. "We are undergoing extensive adjustments in asset value due to rising inflation concerns."

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"Investors are leaving the market because of the prospect of a recession," David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wells Management, told Bloomberg. "To be honest, it is difficult to make a strong argument against the prospect of an economic downturn." "We know that most of the Fed's austerity policies bring about a recession," he added, "So we have to have an answer to the question of why it will be different this time, and it's not that easy to come up with the answer."

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Lisa Charlotte, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Asset Management, said, "The Fed is under pressure to accelerate the pace of tightening at a time when inflation is rarely showing signs of calming down," adding, "It is becoming more and more problematic as complex factors are intensifying due to the Ukraine match or China's Corona response." Overall, this means that global economic growth is slowing faster than expected, he said.

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Oil prices rose on the day. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI (Western Texas crude oil) delivery rose $3.40 (3.08%) to $113.89 per barrel. On the London ICE Futures Exchange, North Sea Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, rose $2.69 (2.41%) to $114.24 per barrel as of 10:18 p.m.

Gold Investment Starts

 Today, we're going to talk about gold investment, a traditional investment method that many people invest globally.

Gold is also one of the most chosen stocks when volatility increases in the stock market or when the trend changes from upward to downward.

You can easily invest in many ways, but in fact, the fluctuation in the market price is not that big, so there is a limit to short-term profits.

For this reason, many investors are making gold investments as gifts.

Futures are investment products that can be followed in both directions by indices, raw materials, and prices.

Is the car sold this month sharp in Songdo, Incheon? Is the average subscription competition for the central park soaring?

In Songdo, the top of the lake, which had been sold out before, was at a greater level, but the competition rate has increased significantly.

How many of them didn't sell in the first half? Namyangju and this month when the application deadline comes out. New apartments. Needed. Is demand increasing?

Real estate expert "Will the supply of condominiums decrease if the ceiling on the sale of private homes is implemented? Real residence, many people think, "Regulations, burdens, and encourages consumers to buy homes."

Actually, next month Do you have plans to buy a new apartment? Do you have a reconstruction project in Dunchon Jugong and a hat for the sale price? Is the sale schedule unclear?

The same goes for Woon Ting-shi.

It's not going to sell this year Just by looking at the quantity, there are hundreds of unplanned cities already, and new supply plans for the future are uncertain, and they're hotspots.

In particular, why don't we take into account that the number of unsold units in the first half of this year is hundreds?

I don't have a clear decision

The previous day's "Comfortable World" Yoon Ting-er van Prime special did not include the total number of households and the average number of subscriptions, ranking the end of the housing type at competitive prices before the deadline.

This year's Unting district won the first place in my finale and received excellent reviews.

"Comfortable World Woonjung Urban Prime" is about cheaper than Pyeongdang and Park Woonjung Prugio. It's similar to Jungheung S class

The goal is to preempt the location around the Golden Route GTX Station Last GTXB Path Altruity Path GTX Full Path Opening Visualization Path. Good news and envy.

Specifically, GTXABC roadway connection station proximity

a housing site sale case

 Early implementation of the highest price system for private housing is rare in Paju. Is Winchingren unique? complicated contract deadlines

This year, hundreds of households are still lacking after January 1st (Wed) of the lunar calendar.

There is news of the ceiling on housing prices, but are there people who are worried that housing supply will shrink more than now? - Yes.

The sale price. Cap Systems Financial Information Center. Apartment ranking

The results and recruitment of three Unjeong class households have been received.

Total balance Middle dog balance rating Close dog balance ranking closed.

Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co., which was disappointed last month.ZTE Construction. It has a completely different atmosphere than Dabang Construction.

Just a month ago, three construction companies ran out of supplies and got busy.

However, Jungheung Construction and Daebang Construction have both sold and completed construction.

In particular, even if the remaining quantity is exhausted, citing the sale price, cap, and implementation, it will speed up.

The sale price and cap of Songdo and Namyangju show the possibility.

[Source] The opportunity to enter mooring is now, the last chance of the year

Price of silver and investment plan

 Disagreements against companies also weaken incentives for investment.

After the financial crisis, Korean companies faced a crisis by reducing investment.

If we change the structure of the Korean economy at the age of COVID-19, corporate investment will decrease.

This is the result of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI)'s recent survey of 316 domestic companies on their investment plans for 2022.

As a result, only 11.7% of companies have investment plans for next year.

56.2% of companies did not review and 32.1% said they were reviewing their investment plans.

In fact, it is not too much to say that the way Korean companies cope with uncertainties in the future has led to a decrease in investment.

An important turning point was the foreign exchange crisis.

The growth rate of facility investment from 91 to 95 was 10.4% per year, 2.3% from 96 to 2000, and 1.8% from 2001 to 2002.

Investment patterns have turned conservative as investment deteriorated due to high debt ratios.

Only 11.7% of companies have investment plans for next year, so growth is expected to slow | Author Yirum Urology Department

As an industrial product, silver is an investment target that many investors are paying attention to, as its demand is gradually increasing in many of the latest industries. 

In the future, as internal combustion engine cars are replaced with electric vehicles, demand for silver is expected to increase, and this increase in demand is expected to lead to a rise in silver prices. 

However, simply for this reason, investors need to be careful because there is a big obstacle to raising the dollar interest rate in 2022 to expect a rise in silver prices. 

How to deal with a fall in the Japanese stock market

 In the 2000s, there was a ray of light in Japan's recession.

As the Koizumi Junichiro administration's active reforms have improved economic efficiency and made the effects of financial reforms clear, labor productivity growth has begun to increase again.

First of all, total factor productivity (TFP) has been steadily rising since the 2000s.

Total factor productivity means increased productivity that cannot be explained by input of factors such as labor or capital.

In other words, qualitative growth, not quantitative growth, has begun in earnest.

Technological innovation and collaborative technological advancements are too obvious to disappear overnight.

The second reason why the Japanese economy has increased productivity faster since the mid-2010s is that listed companies' profitability has been steadily improving.

ROE measures how much profit a company generates using its assets.

Since we don't see the last of the three methods (leverage), we suggest that the recent improvement in Japanese companies' profitability is due to management innovation or improved returns.

Of course, the stock market PBR (Price Book Value Latio) remains at an all-time low because participants in the Japanese stock market do not trust the profitability of Japanese companies as shown in Figure 2.

However, as long as ROE remains high, it should not be forgotten that stock prices can rise steadily without raising PBR.

This means that an increase in ROE increases the company's profits, increasing the dividend or net asset value per share.

Dividends are directly related to shareholders' investment returns, and even if the stock price/booking rate is the same, the increase in NAV per share is the driving force behind the rise in stock prices.

The Southern European stock market is not suitable for investment

There are often markets that are not suitable for investment, such as the Japanese stock market in the 80s and 90s.

A typical example is the southern European market such as Italy.

"Figure 3" shows the ROE and PBR trends in Italy.

Quality Growth Restores the Japanese Stock Exchange…leverage operation fall|Author Yirum urology

If you're not familiar with futures trading, you can understand futures trading as a two-way (rising, falling) investment in the price of underlying assets such as indexes, raw materials, interest rates, and exchange rates.

For example, if you invest in Nikkei futures in Japan, if you think the Nikkei index will rise in the future, you can enter the buying position (Long). 

And then when the index actually goes up, you get a return. 

On the contrary, if you think the index will fall in the future, you can enter the short position. 

[Source] How to deal with a fall in the Japanese stock market!|Author extreme

증시와 우크라이나 영향

 월가 및 연준 조사 회사인 퀼 인텔리전스의 CEO이자 수석 전략가인 다니엘 디마티노 부스는 "나는 25년 동안 시장에 있었으나 이런 것을 본 적이 없다. 이는 변덕스러운 것만이 아니라 폭력이다"고 말했다.

존 린치 코메리카 웰스매니지먼트 최고투자책임자(CEO)는 "증시가 연준에 대해 무엇을 해야 할지 아직 결정하지 못했다는 것을 보여준다. 연준의 인플레이션 인정과 금리 인상 약속으로 기술과 성장이 어떻게 시장을 지속해서 더 높게 이끌 수 있는가에 대해 답해야 했다"고 진단했다.

이날 대형 기술주들이 손실을 이끌었다. 이런 기업들은 미래 혁신과 후속 수익에 대한 약속이 투자자들에게 가치 있기 때문에 특히 금리 상승에 취약하다.

페이스북 모기업 메타가 6.8%, 아마존이 7.6%, 구글 모기업 알파벳이 4.7% 가까이 하락했다.

전자상거래 종목도 1분기 실적 부진을 기록한 뒤 급락했다. 엣시(Etsy)는 거의 17% 하락했고 이베이(eBay)는 약 12% 하락했다.

한편, 새로운 경제 데이터는 노동 생산성이 2022년 1분기에 7.5% 하락하여 1947년 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 감소했음을 보여줬다

최근 우크라이나와 러시아의 전쟁 영향으로 미국 CPI(소비자물가지수)가 가파르게 치솟고 있다. 세계 곡창 지대인 나라의 땅이 전쟁터로 변하니 곡물 가격이 폭등하고 글로벌 에너지 수출국에 대한 경제적 봉쇄로 인해서 에너지 및 원자재 가격이 폭등하고 있기 때문이다. 결국 이는 당연하게도 미국 CPI에 반영된다.

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이렇게 되면 급격한 인플레이션이 발생할 수밖에 없는데 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있는 수단 중 하나가 기준 금리 인상이다. 연준은 인플레이션을 잡기 위해서 금리 인상을 점진적으로 진행하고 있으며, 75bp를 인상할 수도 있다는 말도 나오고 있는데, 이렇게 되면 한국 기준금리를 역전하게 된다.(현재 한국 기준금리는 1.5%)